Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 15 at the 67

New York Giants 6 – Carolina Panthers 3

(8:56) 6-J.Gillan punts 67 yards to end zone, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.88 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.89 EP
74% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model