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PIT Away

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
@
CIN Home

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
Sunday 2022-09-11 · 13:00 Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati US 🌧 Rain Spread 7.5 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

PIT
32.4%
CIN
67.6%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PIT offense: -0.134 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • CIN offense: +0.068 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • Joe Burrow (CIN): +0.102 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

PIT 20
–
CIN 26
Projected margin: CIN by 6 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

PIT

No players on the report.

CIN

Devin Asiasi TE Out Quadricep
Mitchell Wilcox TE Questionable Ankle
Trent Taylor WR Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 23
–
CIN 20

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:52 TD PIT (12:52) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right intended for 83-T.Boyd INTERCEPTED by 39-M.Fitzpatrick at CIN 31. 39-M.Fitzpatrick for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 6 – CIN 0
  • Q1 07:21 FG CIN (7:21) 2-E.McPherson 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. PIT 7 – CIN 3
  • Q1 02:28 FG PIT (2:28) 9-C.Boswell 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. PIT 10 – CIN 3
  • Q2 08:50 TD PIT (8:50) 72-T.Scott reported in as eligible. 10-M.Trubisky pass short left to 22-N.Harris for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 16 – CIN 3
  • Q2 00:18 FG CIN (:18) 2-E.McPherson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. PIT 17 – CIN 6
  • Q3 04:44 TD CIN (4:44) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 83-T.Boyd for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 17 – CIN 12
  • Q4 11:18 FG PIT (11:18) 9-C.Boswell 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. PIT 20 – CIN 14
  • Q4 00:04 TD CIN (:04) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 1-J.Chase for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 20 – CIN 20
  • Q5 00:05 FG PIT (:05) 9-C.Boswell 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. PIT 23 – CIN 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (13:38) 6-P.Harvin punts 44 yards to CIN 22, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 11-T.Taylor.

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 17 at the 41
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 54%

    (7:21) 2-E.McPherson 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (5:57) 6-P.Harvin punts 41 yards to CIN 29, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 11-T.Taylor to CIN 35 for 6 yards (13-M.Boykin, 83-Co.Heyward).

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.26 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 99%

    (2:28) 9-C.Boswell 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 4 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (4:12) 6-P.Harvin punts 57 yards to CIN 29, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 11-T.Taylor pushed ob at CIN 35 for 6 yards (24-B.Snell).

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 1 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 69%

    (1:16) 77-H.Adeniji reported in as eligible. 28-J.Mixon right guard pushed ob at PIT 4 for 31 yards (39-M.Fitzpatrick).

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 98%

    (:18) 2-E.McPherson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (13:04) 10-K.Huber punts 58 yards to PIT 9, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 89-G.Olszewski.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 14 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (10:33) 6-P.Harvin punts 40 yards to CIN 44, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 11-T.Taylor to PIT 46 for 10 yards (48-J.Jones).

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 8 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (:28) 6-P.Harvin punts 53 yards to CIN 9, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 4 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (13:36) 10-K.Huber punts 50 yards to PIT 35, Center-46-C.Harris. 89-G.Olszewski to CIN 45 for 20 yards (17-S.Morgan).

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 10 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 79%

    (11:18) 9-C.Boswell 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 6 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 67%

    (8:23) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle intended for 83-T.Boyd INTERCEPTED by 25-A.Witherspoon at PIT 23. 25-A.Witherspoon to PIT 23 for no gain (34-S.Perine).

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 4 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (6:13) 6-P.Harvin punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Touchback. PENALTY on PIT-46-C.Kuntz, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 20.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 2 at the 2 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 99%

    (1:56) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short left to 1-J.Chase (20-C.Sutton). PENALTY on CIN-1-J.Chase, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 8 at the 81 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (1:36) 6-P.Harvin punts 45 yards to CIN 36, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 11-T.Taylor to CIN 40 for 4 yards (13-M.Boykin).