Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 62

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

(:28) 6-P.Harvin punts 53 yards to CIN 9, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.46 EP
64% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 62, worth -3.39 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model