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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 81

Pittsburgh Steelers 20 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

What Actually Happened

(1:36) 6-P.Harvin punts 45 yards to CIN 36, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 11-T.Taylor to CIN 40 for 4 yards (13-M.Boykin).

The Three Options

GO -1.98 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.82 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 81, worth -3.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 38, worth -1.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model