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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 86

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(4:12) 6-P.Harvin punts 57 yards to CIN 29, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 11-T.Taylor pushed ob at CIN 35 for 6 yards (24-B.Snell).

The Three Options

GO -2.39 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.22 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 86, worth -5.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 44, worth -2.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model