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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 36

Cincinnati Bengals 14 – Pittsburgh Steelers 20

What Actually Happened

(8:23) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle intended for 83-T.Boyd INTERCEPTED by 25-A.Witherspoon at PIT 23. 25-A.Witherspoon to PIT 23 for no gain (34-S.Perine).

The Three Options

GO +0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.86 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.71 EP
KICK +0.36 EP
  • 65% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.37 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model