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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 30

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

What Actually Happened

(11:18) 9-C.Boswell 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.44 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30, worth -1.48 EP
KICK +0.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 40, worth -2.08 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model