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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 17 at the 41

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(7:21) 2-E.McPherson 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.64 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.27 EP
KICK +0.46 EP
What Happened
  • 52% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.88 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.16 EP
PUNT +0.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.31 EP