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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 60

Pittsburgh Steelers 20 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

What Actually Happened

(6:13) 6-P.Harvin punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Touchback. PENALTY on PIT-46-C.Kuntz, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 20.

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.07 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 60, worth -2.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.64 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 19, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model