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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 2

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(2:28) 9-C.Boswell 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +2.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.37 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 2, worth -0.18 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.43 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.26 EP