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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
@
ARI Home

Arizona Cardinals

HC Kliff Kingsbury
Sunday 2022-09-11 · 16:25 State Farm Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome Spread -6.0 O/U 54.0

Win Probability

KC
68.8%
ARI
31.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • KC offense: +0.238 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • Patrick Mahomes (KC): +0.218 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • ARI defense: +0.061 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

KC 27
–
ARI 22
Projected margin: KC by 5 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

KC

No players on the report.

ARI

Cody Ford G Out Ankle
Rondale Moore WR Out Hamstring
Trayvon Mullen CB Out Toe
Byron Murphy CB Questionable Illness
J.J. Watt DE Questionable Calf
Zach Ertz TE Questionable Calf
Justin Pugh G Questionable Neck

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 44
–
ARI 21

Prediction missed by 18 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:43 TD KC (9:43) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN [44-M.Golden]. KC 6 – ARI 0
  • Q1 03:24 TD KC (3:24) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 25-C.Edwards-Helaire for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 13 – ARI 0
  • Q2 13:09 TD ARI (13:09) (Shotgun) 6-J.Conner up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 14 – ARI 6
  • Q2 07:37 TD KC (7:37) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 25-C.Edwards-Helaire for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 20 – ARI 7
  • Q2 00:07 FG KC (:07) 7-H.Butker 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. KC 23 – ARI 7
  • Q3 10:02 TD KC (10:02) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 88-J.Fortson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [52-V.Dimukeje]. KC 29 – ARI 7
  • Q3 04:00 TD KC (4:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 17-M.Hardman for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 36 – ARI 7
  • Q4 12:58 TD ARI (12:58) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 2-M.Brown for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 37 – ARI 13
  • Q4 07:43 TD KC (7:43) (Shotgun) 10-I.Pacheco right tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 43 – ARI 15
  • Q4 05:15 TD ARI (5:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 86-Z.Ertz for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 44 – ARI 21

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (8:01) 14-A.Lee punts 52 yards to KC 21, Center-46-A.Brewer. 17-M.Hardman ran ob at 50 for 29 yards (89-S.Anderson). PENALTY on KC-26-D.Bush, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at KC 24.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 2 at the 4
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 98%

    (7:37) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 25-C.Edwards-Helaire for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (6:14) 14-A.Lee punts 57 yards to KC 12, Center-46-A.Brewer. 24-S.Moore pushed ob at KC 25 for 13 yards (89-S.Anderson).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 3 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (3:11) 5-T.Townsend punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 15 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 28%

    (1:17) 14-A.Lee punts 41 yards to KC 12, Center-46-A.Brewer. 24-S.Moore to KC 20 for 8 yards (45-D.Gardeck, 47-E.Turner).

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 2 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 73%

    (:40) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep left to 6-J.Conner [56-G.Karlaftis].

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (9:04) 14-A.Lee punts 51 yards to KC 19, Center-46-A.Brewer. 24-S.Moore to KC 34 for 15 yards (45-D.Gardeck).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 2 at the 24
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 88%

    (14:20) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 83-G.Dortch to KC 10 for 14 yards (22-J.Thornhill, 27-R.Fenton). KC-50-W.Gay was injured during the play.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

    (12:58) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 2-M.Brown for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 14 at the 72 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (2:00) 5-T.Townsend punts 50 yards to ARI 22, Center-41-J.Winchester. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 21 for -1 yards (44-E.Lee; 35-Ja.Watson).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 3 at the 57 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 19-T.McSorley pass short middle to 17-A.Isabella to KC 47 for 10 yards (29-C.Lammons).