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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 34

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 20

What Actually Happened

(:40) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep left to 6-J.Conner [56-G.Karlaftis].

The Three Options

GO +1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.20 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 34, worth -0.95 EP
KICK +1.35 EP
  • 73% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.37 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 44, worth -1.42 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model