Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 70

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 30

(9:04) 14-A.Lee punts 51 yards to KC 19, Center-46-A.Brewer. 24-S.Moore to KC 34 for 15 yards (45-D.Gardeck).

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.76 EP
53% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 70, worth -3.94 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model