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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 24

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 37

What Actually Happened

(14:20) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 83-G.Dortch to KC 10 for 14 yards (22-J.Thornhill, 27-R.Fenton). KC-50-W.Gay was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +2.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.49 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24, worth -0.70 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
  • 88% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 34, worth -1.48 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model