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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 6

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 37

What Actually Happened

(12:58) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 2-M.Brown for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.83 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 6, worth +0.04 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.85 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model