Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 8 at the 73

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(8:01) 14-A.Lee punts 52 yards to KC 21, Center-46-A.Brewer. 17-M.Hardman ran ob at 50 for 29 yards (89-S.Anderson). PENALTY on KC-26-D.Bush, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at KC 24.

The Three Options

GO -1.68 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.98 EP
60% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 73, worth -4.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model