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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 14 at the 72

Kansas City Chiefs 44 – Arizona Cardinals 21

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 5-T.Townsend punts 50 yards to ARI 22, Center-41-J.Winchester. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 21 for -1 yards (44-E.Lee; 35-Ja.Watson).

The Three Options

GO -1.59 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.53 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 72, worth -3.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 30, worth -1.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model