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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 4

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(7:37) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 25-C.Edwards-Helaire for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.12 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 4, worth -0.23 EP
KICK +1.37 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.41 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -1.28 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model