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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 15 at the 53

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 20

What Actually Happened

(1:17) 14-A.Lee punts 41 yards to KC 12, Center-46-A.Brewer. 24-S.Moore to KC 20 for 8 yards (45-D.Gardeck, 47-E.Turner).

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.30 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 53, worth -2.46 EP
KICK -0.97 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.23 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 15, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model