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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
@
CIN Home

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
Sunday 2022-02-13 · 18:30 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread -4.5 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

LA
58.2%
CIN
41.8%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Neutral site — no home-field edge
  • CIN offense: +0.103 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • LA offense: +0.060 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Joe Burrow (CIN): +0.118 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • LA defense: -0.084 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LA 25
–
CIN 24
Projected margin: LA by 1 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 22

LA

No players on the report.

CIN

C.J. Uzomah TE Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 22 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 23
–
CIN 20

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:26 TD LA (6:26) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 3-O.Beckham for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 6 – CIN 0
  • Q1 00:31 FG CIN (:31) 2-E.McPherson 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. LA 7 – CIN 3
  • Q2 12:56 TD LA (12:56) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 10-C.Kupp for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 13 – CIN 3
  • Q2 05:52 TD CIN (5:52) 28-J.Mixon pass short right to 85-T.Higgins for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 13 – CIN 9
  • Q3 15:00 TD CIN (15:00) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 85-T.Higgins for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 13 – CIN 16
  • Q3 10:19 FG CIN (10:19) 2-E.McPherson 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. LA 13 – CIN 20
  • Q3 06:02 FG LA (6:02) 8-M.Gay 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 16 – CIN 20
  • Q4 01:29 TD LA (1:29) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 10-C.Kupp for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LA 22 – CIN 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 20 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (12:04) 6-J.Hekker punts 40 yards to CIN 34, Center-42-M.Orzech. 11-T.Taylor to CIN 42 for 8 yards (96-M.Hoecht).

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 1 at the 49
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 36%

    (10:00) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short right to 1-J.Chase (50-E.Jones).

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (4:54) 10-K.Huber punts 41 yards to LA 28, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 19-B.Powell.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 3 at the 65
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (2:23) 6-J.Hekker punts 55 yards to CIN 10, Center-42-M.Orzech. 11-T.Taylor to CIN 30 for 20 yards (38-B.Howell).

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 10 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 97%

    (:31) 2-E.McPherson 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 14 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (:42) 10-K.Huber punts 51 yards to LA 32, Center-46-C.Harris. 19-B.Powell to LA 41 for 9 yards (31-Mi.Thomas).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 1 at the 50
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 34%

    (:12) 6-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-42-M.Orzech, Touchback.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 1 at the 22
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 90%

    (13:09) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow scrambles up the middle to LA 18 for 4 yards (24-T.Rapp).

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 12 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 92%

    (10:19) 2-E.McPherson 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 5 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 89%

    (6:02) 8-M.Gay 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 13 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (4:37) 10-K.Huber punts 43 yards to LA 35, Center-46-C.Harris. 19-B.Powell to LA 47 for 12 yards (44-C.Johnston).

  • Q3 LA 4th & 13 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (2:55) 6-J.Hekker punts 40 yards to CIN 16, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 5 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (:43) 10-K.Huber punts 32 yards to LA 47, Center-46-C.Harris. 19-B.Powell to LA 48 for 1 yard (80-M.Thomas).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 7 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 36%

    (14:11) 6-J.Hekker punts 33 yards to CIN 16, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 11-T.Taylor.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 4 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 50%

    (10:07) 6-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to CIN 16, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 9 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (6:20) 10-K.Huber punts 39 yards to LA 21, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 19-B.Powell.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 1 at the 70 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73%

    (5:00) 10-C.Kupp right end to LA 37 for 7 yards (30-J.Bates III; 20-E.Apple).

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 1 at the 49 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 36%

    (:43) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short right to 34-S.Perine [99-A.Donald].