Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 13 at the 78

Cincinnati Bengals 20 – Los Angeles Rams 16

(4:37) 10-K.Huber punts 43 yards to LA 35, Center-46-C.Harris. 19-B.Powell to LA 47 for 12 yards (44-C.Johnston).

The Three Options

GO -2.43 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.75 EP
67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 78, worth -4.48 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model