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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 7 at the 49

Los Angeles Rams 16 – Cincinnati Bengals 20

What Actually Happened

(14:11) 6-J.Hekker punts 33 yards to CIN 16, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 11-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.96 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
KICK -1.05 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model