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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 12 at the 20

Cincinnati Bengals 17 – Los Angeles Rams 13

What Actually Happened

(10:19) 2-E.McPherson 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +1.13 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.50 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 20, worth -0.54 EP
KICK +1.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30, worth -1.25 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model