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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 49

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(10:00) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short right to 1-J.Chase (50-E.Jones).

The Three Options

GO +1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +3.16 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
KICK -0.71 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 14, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model