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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 69

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(4:54) 10-K.Huber punts 41 yards to LA 28, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 19-B.Powell.

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.97 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 69, worth -3.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 27, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model