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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 70

Los Angeles Rams 16 – Cincinnati Bengals 20

What Actually Happened

(5:00) 10-C.Kupp right end to LA 37 for 7 yards (30-J.Bates III; 20-E.Apple).

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.29 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 70, worth -3.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.95 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 28, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model