4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 11

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(:31) 2-E.McPherson 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +2.01 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.44 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP
KICK +2.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 22, worth -0.58 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model