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New York Giants

HC Joe Judge
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CHI Home

Chicago Bears

HC Matt Nagy
Sunday 2022-01-02 · 13:00 Soldier Field, Chicago US 🌨 Snow Spread 7.0 O/U 36.5

Win Probability

NYG
32.8%
CHI
67.2%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYG offense: -0.160 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • QB edge to CHI: Andy Dalton (CHI) -0.035 vs Mike Glennon (NYG) -0.287 EPA/dropback (CHI starting Andy Dalton in place of Nick Foles; NYG starting Mike Glennon in place of Jake Fromm)
  • CHI defense: +0.097 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYG 18
–
CHI 23
Projected margin: CHI by 5 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

NYG

Collin Johnson WR Out Hamstring
John Ross WR Out Knee
Kadarius Toney WR Out Shoulder
Billy Price C Doubtful Not injury related - personal matter
Adoree' Jackson CB Questionable Quadricep
Austin Johnson DT Questionable Foot
Chris Myarick TE Questionable Hip
Nate Solder T Questionable COVID Ramp Up

CHI

J.P. Holtz TE Doubtful Not injury related - personal matter
Eddie Goldman DT Questionable Finger
Jason Peters T Questionable Ankle
Justin Fields QB Questionable Ankle
Akiem Hicks DT Questionable Covid Ramp up
Duke Shelley CB Questionable Heel

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 3
–
CHI 29

Prediction missed by 21 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 14:45 TD CHI (14:45) 32-D.Montgomery left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 0 – CHI 6
  • Q1 08:14 TD CHI (8:14) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 11-D.Mooney for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 0 – CHI 13
  • Q2 07:50 FG NYG (7:50) 5-G.Gano 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. NYG 3 – CHI 14
  • Q2 01:04 FG CHI (1:04) 2-C.Santos 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. NYG 3 – CHI 17
  • Q2 00:54 SAF CHI (:54) 68-B.Bredeson and 63-W.Martin reported in as eligible. 28-D.Booker right guard to NYG 1 for no gain (90-A.Blackson). The Replay Official reviewed the safety ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 68-B.Bredeson and 63-W.Martin reported in as eligible. 28-D.Booker right guard tackled in End Zone for -1 yards, SAFETY (90-A.Blackson). NYG 3 – CHI 19
  • Q2 00:03 FG CHI (:03) 2-C.Santos 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. NYG 3 – CHI 22
  • Q3 09:33 TD CHI (9:33) (Shotgun) 32-D.Montgomery left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 3 – CHI 28

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 2 at the 4
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 98%

    (8:14) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 11-D.Mooney for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 16 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (4:45) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to CHI 22, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 17-J.Grant to CHI 23 for 1 yard (20-J.Love). PENALTY on CHI-35-R.Nall, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 23.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 7 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (3:07) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 42 yards to NYG 42, Center-48-P.Scales. 83-P.Cooper to CHI 43 for 15 yards (48-P.Scales; 57-C.Jones). PENALTY on NYG-31-K.Crossen, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 42.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 3 at the 48
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 28%

    (15:00) 9-R.Dixon punts 39 yards to CHI 9, Center-58-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-41-C.Myarick.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 6 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (13:54) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 42 yards to NYG 45, Center-48-P.Scales, out of bounds.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 6 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 90%

    (7:50) 5-G.Gano 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 1 at the 12
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 96%

    (2:16) 32-D.Montgomery left guard to NYG 10 for 2 yards (98-A.Johnson, 99-L.Williams).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 98%

    (1:04) 2-C.Santos 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 6 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 82%

    (:03) 2-C.Santos 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 5 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (6:42) 9-R.Dixon punts 33 yards to CHI 22, Center-58-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-47-C.Brown.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 8 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (5:13) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 56 yards to NYG 20, Center-48-P.Scales. 83-P.Cooper to NYG 37 for 17 yards (27-T.Graham).

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 8 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (1:04) 9-R.Dixon punts 38 yards to CHI 27, Center-58-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-31-K.Crossen.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 10 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 38%

    (7:26) (Shotgun) 2-M.Glennon pass incomplete deep middle to 80-K.Rudolph.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 6 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 22%

    (5:04) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 35 yards to NYG 16, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-27-T.Graham.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 4 at the 9 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 97%

    (1:55) (Shotgun) 64-A.Bars and 76-T.Jenkins reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 32-D.Montgomery. 32-D.Montgomery pass short middle intended for 85-C.Kmet INTERCEPTED by 48-T.Crowder at NYG 0. 48-T.Crowder to NYG 17 for 17 yards (80-J.Graham).