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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 6 at the 20

New York Giants 0 – Chicago Bears 14

What Actually Happened

(7:50) 5-G.Gano 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.06 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.90 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 20, worth -1.05 EP
KICK +1.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30, worth -1.64 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model