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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 12

Chicago Bears 14 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(2:16) 32-D.Montgomery left guard to NYG 10 for 2 yards (98-A.Johnson, 99-L.Williams).

The Three Options

GO +3.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.13 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 12, worth -0.18 EP
KICK +2.01 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 22, worth -0.67 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model