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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 44

New York Giants 3 – Chicago Bears 29

What Actually Happened

(7:26) (Shotgun) 2-M.Glennon pass incomplete deep middle to 80-K.Rudolph.

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.65 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 44, worth -1.95 EP
KICK -0.78 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 12, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model