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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 55

New York Giants 3 – Chicago Bears 29

What Actually Happened

(6:42) 9-R.Dixon punts 33 yards to CHI 22, Center-58-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-47-C.Brown.

The Three Options

GO -0.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.68 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 55, worth -3.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 16, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model