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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 26

Chicago Bears 19 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(:03) 2-C.Santos 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +1.03 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +2.75 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 26, worth -0.00 EP
KICK +2.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 36, worth -0.10 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model