Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 84

Chicago Bears 14 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(3:07) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 42 yards to NYG 42, Center-48-P.Scales. 83-P.Cooper to CHI 43 for 15 yards (48-P.Scales; 57-C.Jones). PENALTY on NYG-31-K.Crossen, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 42.

The Three Options

GO -2.22 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +1.18 EP
58% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 84, worth -4.71 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model