Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 8 at the 76

Chicago Bears 29 – New York Giants 3

(5:13) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 56 yards to NYG 20, Center-48-P.Scales. 83-P.Cooper to NYG 37 for 17 yards (27-T.Graham).

The Three Options

GO -2.04 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.55 EP
61% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 76, worth -4.35 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model