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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 51

Chicago Bears 29 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(5:04) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 35 yards to NYG 16, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-27-T.Graham.

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.58 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 51, worth -2.44 EP
KICK -1.49 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.44 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 14, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model