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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
Sunday 2022-01-02 · 13:00 M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US 🌧 Rain Spread -7.0 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

LA
56.7%
BAL
43.3%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BAL defense: +0.109 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • Tyler Huntley (BAL): -0.086 EPA/dropback in prior starts (BAL starting Tyler Huntley in place of Josh Johnson)
  • LA offense: +0.031 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LA 24
–
BAL 22
Projected margin: LA by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

LA

Cam Akers RB Questionable Achilles
Taylor Rapp S Questionable Shoulder
Leonard Floyd LB Questionable Ankle
Greg Gaines T Questionable Hand

BAL

Anthony Averett CB Out Ribs
Ben Powers G Out Foot
Odafe Oweh LB Doubtful Foot
Marquise Brown WR Questionable Illness
Lamar Jackson QB Questionable Ankle
Devin Duvernay WR Questionable Ankle
Daelin Hayes LB Questionable Knee
Patrick Ricard FB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 20
–
BAL 19

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 02:03 TD BAL (2:03) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle intended for 89-T.Higbee INTERCEPTED by 36-C.Clark at LA 17. 36-C.Clark for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Ravens' first defensive TD of season. LA 0 – BAL 6
  • Q2 03:44 FG BAL (3:44) 9-J.Tucker 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch. Tuckers 30th field goal. LA 0 – BAL 10
  • Q2 01:01 TD LA (1:01) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 10-C.Kupp for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 6 – BAL 10
  • Q2 00:07 FG BAL (:07) 9-J.Tucker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch. LA 7 – BAL 13
  • Q3 04:47 FG BAL (4:47) 9-J.Tucker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch. LA 7 – BAL 16
  • Q4 12:12 TD LA (12:12) (No Huddle) 25-S.Michel right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LA 13 – BAL 16
  • Q4 04:33 FG BAL (4:33) 9-J.Tucker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch. LA 14 – BAL 19
  • Q4 01:01 TD LA (1:01) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 3-O.Beckham for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 20 – BAL 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 6 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 54%

    (10:40) 4-S.Koch punts 36 yards to LA 4, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-16-T.Wallace.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 14 at the 38
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 60%

    (5:40) 8-M.Gay 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 6 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 29%

    (3:37) 4-S.Koch punts 42 yards to LA 8, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 10-C.Kupp.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 1 at the 23
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 88%

    (6:00) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley left end pushed ob at LA 08 for 15 yards (24-T.Rapp).

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%

    (3:44) 9-J.Tucker 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch. Tuckers 30th field goal.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 2 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP
    p(convert) 61% p(FG) 23%

    (2:00) 6-J.Hekker punts 39 yards to BAL 14, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 1 at the 33
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 72%

    (6:03) 2-T.Huntley up the middle to LA 31 for 2 yards (94-A.Robinson).

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 7 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 81%

    (4:47) 9-J.Tucker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.18 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (2:55) 6-J.Hekker punts 53 yards to BAL 13, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 11 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (1:09) 4-S.Koch punts 61 yards to LA 27, Center-46-N.Moore. 19-B.Powell to LA 45 for 18 yards (46-N.Moore).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 16 at the 16 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 94%

    (4:33) 9-J.Tucker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 5 at the 12 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 96%

    (1:08) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 3-O.Beckham to BAL 07 for 5 yards (25-T.Young).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 1 at the 66 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (:23) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass short middle to 89-M.Andrews to BAL 38 for 4 yards (33-N.Scott; 5-J.Ramsey).