4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 28

Baltimore Ravens 13 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(4:47) 9-J.Tucker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +1.01 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.58 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 28, worth -0.89 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 38, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model