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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 33

Baltimore Ravens 13 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(6:03) 2-T.Huntley up the middle to LA 31 for 2 yards (94-A.Robinson).

The Three Options

GO +2.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.91 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 33, worth -1.30 EP
KICK +1.03 EP
  • 72% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 43, worth -2.02 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model