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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 50

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(3:37) 4-S.Koch punts 42 yards to LA 8, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 10-C.Kupp.

The Three Options

GO -0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.22 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 50, worth -2.55 EP
KICK -1.15 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 14, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model