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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 5

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(3:44) 9-J.Tucker 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch. Tuckers 30th field goal.

The Three Options

GO +2.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.98 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 5, worth -0.22 EP
KICK +1.98 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.69 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model