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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 66

Baltimore Ravens 19 – Los Angeles Rams 20

What Actually Happened

(:23) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass short middle to 89-M.Andrews to BAL 38 for 4 yards (33-N.Scott; 5-J.Ramsey).

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
What Happened
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.39 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 66, worth -1.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 24, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model