4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 14 at the 38

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(5:40) 8-M.Gay 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.19 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 38, worth -2.29 EP
KICK -0.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 47, worth -2.95 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model