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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 53

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 6-J.Hekker punts 39 yards to BAL 14, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO +0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.39 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 53, worth -2.85 EP
KICK -1.62 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.64 EP
PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 15, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP