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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 16 at the 16

Baltimore Ravens 16 – Los Angeles Rams 14

What Actually Happened

(4:33) 9-J.Tucker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
  • 22% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.00 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 16, worth -0.54 EP
KICK +1.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model