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ATL Away

Atlanta Falcons

HC Arthur Smith
@
CAR Home

Carolina Panthers

HC Matt Rhule
Sunday 2021-12-12 · 13:00 Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US ☀️ Clear Spread 2.5 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

ATL
46.9%
CAR
53.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CAR offense: -0.208 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • Cam Newton (CAR): -0.208 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • ATL offense: -0.088 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • CAR defense: -0.116 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • CAR on 7 more days rest than ATL

Predicted Final Score

ATL 19
–
CAR 20
Projected margin: CAR by 1 Projected total: 39

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

ATL

Richie Grant S Questionable Ankle
Adetokunbo Ogundeji LB Questionable Ankle

CAR

Michael Jordan G Out Hamstring
John Miller G Out Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 29
–
CAR 21

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:26 TD CAR (8:26) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton left end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 0 – CAR 6
  • Q1 03:07 TD ATL (3:07) 84-C.Patterson left tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 6 – CAR 7
  • Q2 08:47 TD ATL (8:47) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short middle intended for 20-A.Abdullah INTERCEPTED by 3-M.Walker at ATL 34. 3-M.Walker for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 13 – CAR 7
  • Q2 03:16 FG ATL (3:16) 7-Y.Koo 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-19-T.Morstead. ATL 17 – CAR 7
  • Q3 11:26 TD CAR (11:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard right tackle for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 17 – CAR 13
  • Q3 06:33 FG ATL (6:33) 7-Y.Koo 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-19-T.Morstead. ATL 20 – CAR 14
  • Q4 14:22 TD ATL (14:22) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 81-H.Hurst for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 26 – CAR 14
  • Q4 06:14 FG ATL (6:14) 7-Y.Koo 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-19-T.Morstead. ATL 29 – CAR 14
  • Q4 03:16 TD CAR (3:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-P.Walker pass short right to 11-R.Anderson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 29 – CAR 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (12:46) 19-T.Morstead punts 46 yards to CAR 20, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 13-A.Erickson. PENALTY on ATL-88-F.Darby, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CAR 20.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 1 at the 31
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 74%

    (5:47) 28-M.Davis left tackle to CAR 26 for 5 yards (7-S.Thompson).

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 3 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (1:29) 10-L.Edwards punts 54 yards to ATL 11, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 35-A.Williams.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 8 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (12:42) 19-T.Morstead punts 64 yards to CAR 3, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by ATL-20-K.Sheffield.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 5 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (7:13) 10-L.Edwards punts 33 yards to ATL 49, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-45-G.Ricci.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 6 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 95%

    (3:16) 7-Y.Koo 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-19-T.Morstead.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 2 at the 46
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 36%

    (:02) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 28-M.Davis to CAR 41 for 5 yards (7-S.Thompson).

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 8 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 90%

    (6:33) 7-Y.Koo 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-19-T.Morstead.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58%

    (12:16) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 11-R.Anderson to CAR 39 for 6 yards (34-D.Hall).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 10 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 46%

    (9:59) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton sacked at CAR 48 for -10 yards (6-D.Fowler).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 4 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 76%

    (6:14) 7-Y.Koo 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-19-T.Morstead.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 10 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 41%

    (5:02) (Shotgun) 6-P.Walker pass incomplete deep left to 2-Dj.Moore [45-D.Jones].