Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 67

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Carolina Panthers 7

(12:42) 19-T.Morstead punts 64 yards to CAR 3, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by ATL-20-K.Sheffield.

The Three Options

GO -1.97 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.59 EP
64% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.93 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model