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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 66

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:46) 19-T.Morstead punts 46 yards to CAR 20, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 13-A.Erickson. PENALTY on ATL-88-F.Darby, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CAR 20.

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.92 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 66, worth -4.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.62 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 24, worth -1.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP