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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 46

Atlanta Falcons 17 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(:02) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 28-M.Davis to CAR 41 for 5 yards (7-S.Thompson).

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
What Happened
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +1.06 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 46, worth -0.34 EP
KICK +0.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -0.54 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 13, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model