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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 44

Carolina Panthers 14 – Atlanta Falcons 29

What Actually Happened

(5:02) (Shotgun) 6-P.Walker pass incomplete deep left to 2-Dj.Moore [45-D.Jones].

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP
What Happened
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.41 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 44, worth -2.06 EP
KICK -0.63 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 12, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model